[Adam Montana] official chat is on now. Good morning everyone, and thanks for showing up! There are a lot of questions this week, so first a brief summary:
[Adam Montana] The budget is STILL delayed, the latest report is that they are to vote on Saturday. If you are wondering what the hold up is
[Adam Montana] it’s really tied to the HCL and the distribution of funds. The Kurds want more, the rest are putting up a fight. Other than that, they are in agreement on pretty much everything
[Adam Montana] They will get through their disagreements, and while I don’t know if I believe the vote will be successful on Saturday – I would guess we are less than 2 weeks away from the final vote.
[Adam Montana] The other thing to watch for is Chapter 7. Some are not as optimistic as others on this matter, but I believe the bottom line is they are 100% compliant in every way, even with regards to Kuwait. However, Kuwait does not want to let them out from under Chapter 7 until they are 100% guaranteed that they will be repaid what they are owed
[Adam Montana] you see, if Iraq is let out from under this deal they would then be able to reneg on their agreements, and nothing short of a full blown war could force them to honor their commitment. As things stand right now, Iraq is forced to continue to pay Kuwait, so obviously Kuwait wants it to stay that way
[Adam Montana] So let’s think this through… what are Iraq’s options? How could they possibly settle that debt to Kuwait and move forward as a completely sovereign and free nation? Quite easily, actually – small or big RV, write a check, and the rest is history. Bada bing, bada boom.
[Adam Montana] So that’s pretty much all there is to say about the situation – budget is still delayed but once they compromise on the HCL matter it will pass. Chapter 7 is pending, and it is only held up by one matter. And honestly, it’s not even that much money. All in all, things are looking good. :twothumbs:
[Adam Montana] ok, questions! kcw, if you please
[kcw] Benelli Adam, thanks for everything. About 1 1/2 years ago with Shabs at the helm, the CBI adjusted the sell rate from 1170 to 1166. It was thought that it was a test. The auctions and political scene have not changed very much since the 4 pip move. It might be a dumb question, but trying to figure out why 4 pips and why then? Why not 3 or 5 or 10 and why then? While any movement in the positive direction is great, just can’t wrap my head around the logic of such a small move at that time. Again, thanks for everything.
[Adam Montana] That’s a great question, and one that we explored in great detail at the time it happened. The CBI at that time said they did it because that was where the value should be… but those of us that were watching closely at the time know that there was a huge resistance to the move. Many said at the time that there was no reason to do it, that it would not make a difference, and quite honestly… like you said, what is the purpose of such a small move?
[Adam Montana] The purpose was, in my opinion, to show the world that they will move the rate however and whenever they want. The 4 pip move served absolutely no purpose other than just that – to prove that the CBI and only the CBI is in charge of the rate. :twocents:
[kcw] Flamtap First off, thank you Adam for all the hard work that do. My question is simply, how can Iraq take the three zeros off the value of the current 250 and 500 dinar bills they currently have. If they did so would that not totally render those billls totally worthless?
[Adam Montana] You are describing a l0p – removing three 0s from a 250 note would make that note worth .25 and a 500 note would be .50 not worthless, but it doesn’t make sense to do that… it serves no purpose, does not benefit Iraq, nor does it make daily transactions any easier. That is one of the reasons I don’t buy into the l0p stories – unless they have a good reason to do it, I don’t think they will.
[kcw] Flatbush Zombies Adam, today Markinsa posted an article about Iraq not ready to redenominate “bunny-ear” due to stability issues and other factors. In the article they clearly state they plan to redenominate…
[Adam Montana] 😆 You just summed up Iraq pretty nicely… they said they are not ready to redenominate then said they plan to redenominate 😆
[kcw] respectron Hi Adam, I appreciate this site you have created a lot and also appreciate your wisdom in this venture. I have never posted a question as everyone usually covers all the angles. Anyways my question is…, have you ever considered doing a monthly lottery of some kind in which you offer a FREE Lifetime VIP Membership to the lucky winner? It may be too late (hopefully) but thought I would ask anyways.
[Adam Montana] respectron, I just might take your suggestion in an upcoming month.
[kcw] jon29 In an effort to cut down on smuggling, Baghdad also imposed a stiff exit tax….. http://www.nytimes.c…- ··· ght.html This is very amazing and quite alarming, imo. I would be interested in hearing what Adam has to say about this.
[Adam Montana] hey jon29, I considered deleting the question… but decided this is a good opportunity to point out that it is always important to check the dates on articles. That article you linked to was from May 16 1993.
[kcw] moose55 Hi Adam, An article stated that in modern times the biggest overnight RV of a currency was 35% or so. If the dinar RVed to even a .10 rate, that would be an approximate 10,000% increase if my math is right. Would an overnight RV of this magnitude be possible? Plus imagine the chaos at the banks as thousands rushed to cash in.
Would it be more likely that the dinar become tradeable at or just higher than the present rate and be allowed to float upwards towards the .10 (or hopefully higher) rate over time? Thanks in advance.
[Adam Montana] Of course it is possible. It may be more likely that it would simply grow slowly over time (such as may happen if they raise the rate to 1000:1 later this year as they have mentioned a few times), but it’s also important to remember that they LOST the same percentage of value on their currency when Saddam was removed.
[Adam Montana] The one thing they did NOT lose is their natural resources. While they are working to restabilize their government and society in general, the value of their currency has remained at a low level… in fact, TOO low in many of our opinons.
[Adam Montana] Obviously there is no guarantee that it will ever get back to the previous rate, but I believe it will. That’s why I’m here speculating on it :tiphat:
[kcw] eburt Hello Adam and Mods – Thanks for all you do. My questions is what is really going on in Iraq when it comes to 2013 Budget? Keep seeing conflicting articles on the budget that it has and has not been approved and it seems like we are back to the drawing board with no ones really knows when this thing will RV.
Just want to know your thoughts on what is really going on in Iraq. “I will persist until I succeed – The prizes of life are at the end of each journey, not near the beginning; and it is not given me to know how many steps are necessary to reach my goal. One step at a time is not too difficult – I wll persist until I succeed” GO RV!!
[Adam Montana] The conflicting articles can be confusing. Like I mentioned earlier, the budget is taking so long because the Kurds want a bigger share of the pie – this is the same argument they have every single year, and every single year it ends up passing after a few weeks of delays. I wouldn’t be too concerned with it – it will get through eventually.
[kcw] SMCONTI Adam, Do you think that the The Dinar will be traded as an International currency in 2013?
[Adam Montana] Tough question. I certainly hope so!
[kcw] Candy01 Hello Adam, Now they are stalled on the budget. How long do you think it will take to finally pass the 2013 budget? Do you see the RV happening before March 31, 2013?
[Adam Montana] Before March 31… it’s definitely possible. I believe the budget will be passed by then, and then it’s a matter of HCL/Chapter 7.
[kcw] EC429 Adam, For those of us who do not yet have a Warka account but wish to hold on to Dinars after the RV, do you have any recommencations about what one may do to avoid problems with the dinar dollars changing within the next two years?
[Adam Montana] I wish I could give a definitive answer on that, but without a crystal ball it’s impossible to predict how this will go down. If the dinar RVs and Iraq remains stable, then I would bet some banks will begin holding the Dinar as a currency just like the Euro, Yen, etc. But if Iraq RVs and then things look unstable, most likely banks won’t be taking that risk and we will want to cash out as fast as possible.
[Adam Montana] We just have to wait for it to happen and then evaluate our options as we get them. :twocents:
[kcw] rightsonword Considering the state of Warka (little to no response to emails or calls, inability to transfer funds, etc.), do you recommend for anyone to open an account with them or send funds to them? The article listed below claims that have announced bankruptcy, but also under the protection of the central bank, whatever that means. Do you have any information on the state of Warka besides the little that is released through the news?
[Adam Montana] I have never recommended anyone take any action. These are decisions everyone must make for themselves – in my opinion, Warka is just as risky as any other part of this investment, but if you don’t buy a lottery ticket you can’t win. :shrug:
[kcw] edbeach Good Morning Adam The auctions have been getting super low this last week, my feeling is they are really low now in streets with dinar.
I believe shortly they will run out of dinars what do you think they will do at this point or we they release more dinars back in street from CBI. It seems they have been taking in close to a trillon a week. Thank you for your hard work on this investment.
[Adam Montana] I don’t pay much attention to the auctions… I’ve seen them go up, down, and sideways over the years.
[kcw] TomRiddle There’s been a lot of news about HCL, Tariffs, Article 140; where do we really stand? Your thoughts. Also in past the budget was never really that big a deal(IMO)but, this time seems different. Your thoughts?
[Adam Montana] As I was reading through the questions, I think this one is what prompted me to give the breakdown I did. Thank you for the question.
[kcw] userghost What is left on your personal checklist for Iraq to complete before it can RV? Erbil, Budget, HCL, Article 140, what else is left?
[Adam Montana] Same answer as the last question. I think that’s it! I’m hopeful to see the budget passed soon(ly), and after that… cake! 😆 that’s it, thanks everyone